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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd